A new statement from the National Weather Service in Buffalo, NY (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/) states that this past November has been the 6th warmest on record for both Rochester, NY and Buffalo, NY. In the month of November Buffalo was found to be 5.8 degrees above the average temperature for the month and Rochester at 5.3 degrees above average (see climate data). Another interesting finding is that Buffalo almost tied the record for the latest date of measurable snow, December 3rd. This record is a record set way back in 1899. Buffalo missed this record today by recording 4" of snow so far today associated with a cold front moving through the region.
So what exactly does this mean for our snow season this year in Upstate/Western NY? Well, with the warmer temperatures the Great Lakes will stay warmer but that doesn't necessarily mean a more intense lake effect season as there are many other variables that come into play with lake effect (i.e. presence of very cold air, proper wind direction, lifting mechanisms). The climatology has shown that even with warmer November temperatures and a late snow, a winter with normal winter temperatures and snowfall amounts has pursued, but there have been a few times where it was below normal for both. So it will certainly be interesting to see how this winter rounds out!
The climatology report for Plymouth, NH has states that we have also had above average temperatures at 4.1 degrees above normal. While we ended the month of November on the warm side, we are starting off December on the cool side. Although it may seem like a cold start, it is actually right around the normal for this time of year in Plymouth (normal high: 39, normal low: 19). And today we even have a slight change of snow as a cold front passes through later this afternoon/evening! So it's a pretty good start to December!
Climate Data:
Rochester, NY - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=buf
Buffalo, NY - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=buf
Plymouth, NH - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=gyx
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