Expanding Your Horizon

To my readers and to my fellow post-undergrad twenty-somethings:

I'm writing about something different tonight, but really not all that different than some things I've posted before.  There can be many relations drawn from this topic into the disaster relief world, but hopefully you will be able to relate this to your life as a whole.
Since I was sixteen I have been a part of what I believe the most inspiring organization I have come by.  This organization is Water for South Sudan, Inc.  The organization was started back in 2003 by my friend, a former lost boy, Salva Dut.  He began the organization after he found is father had fallen ill with a water borne illness. He then decided he wanted to do something to help his family and the rest of his community to not fall ill to a preventable disease like water borne illnesses.  Since 2003 the organization has drilled over 150 bore-hole wells in South Sudan, every one of them still operating today.
The reason I am writing about Water for South Sudan is because earlier today my friend posted an article on Facebook titled "25 Things To Do Before You Turn 25".  The list covers everything from going to a local diner at 5:30am to become acquainted with fellow strangers, to jumping into an exciting and sensual relationship. But I couldn't help but be left thinking that the list was missing something.  If I could add to this list I would suggest that you get involved in a project larger than yourself.  For me this project has been Water for South Sudan, but it could be as simple as taking an elderly neighbor out to lunch once a week, or cleaning up a local park or beach once a year.
It is impossible to put a value on what you get out of doing something like this as it is continuously giving.  It is one thing to put a dollar, or some other amount in an envelope and mail it across the country, but to give to an organization and then see the children and families who are directly helped by a well that brings their village clean water is an experience in itself.  And it's just water! Something we take so easily for granted here in America, putting fruit flavoring in it, asking for extra ice, or using purifying filters.  For the people of South Sudan it is not just a simple beverage, but a life-sustaining, opportunity-granting resource.
So I say be selfless and get lost in something bigger than yourself.  Through this I guarantee you will meet some of the most heartening people and gain some of the best stories.  It is an honor to be friends with Salva Dut.  He is a man that defines the word unselfish, never taking any credit for the inspiring work he does and continuously thanking every volunteer, every child that reads his book, and every board member. He has gone through more trials and tribulations than anyone I know and continues to greet every obstacle with a smile.

I am only 22, but if there is something that I am most proud of in my life it is deciding to volunteer with Water for South Sudan.  Being a part of this organization has shaped me to become the person I am today.  It has given me a new outlook on life and the challenges I may face.  Simply put, becoming part of something bigger than I am, that touches more people than I could imagine, continues to put a smile on my face every day.  And why shouldn't you smile every day!?  So DVR your favorite TV show and find something to be passionate about and jump into it! It doesn't have to cost anything and what you get out of it will last until you are 125.  Then after you open yourself up to this new passion share it with your significant other or a friend!  They will love to hear about your new experience and maybe they'll join you sometime!
There is a quote that says "Volunteer - not so you can build your resume, but so you can build yourself."  Let's face it, we're not even 25, we're still kids at heart, we are still finding our place in this gigantic universe and figuring out who we are and what we want to do.  So give a piece of yourself, expand yourself. When you look back in 10, 20, 50 years from now I am positive you will be happy about what you've done; about taking a risk to help something you believe in.  At the least you will get out of it a brilliant story or two, and a check mark next to a point on a list of things to do.


The list that inspired me to share my thoughts: "25 Things To Do Before You Turn 25" by Stephanie Georgopulos http://thoughtcatalog.com/2012/25-things-to-do-before-you-turn-25/ (Thanks for sharing Alyssa!!)

What the frack, bro?

Here is a copy of a paper I recently wrote on environmental protection and land use issues, focusing on fracking, for my public policy class:

The environment we are living in today is one unlike any other the world has seen before.  It is true that our atmosphere has a natural Earth energy balance and passes through warm periods and cold periods.  Thanks to climate analysis of ice cores, tree rings, glacier remains and ocean sediments it is also known that this is the warmest warm period we have seen in hundreds of thousands of years.  The level of greenhouse gases also appears to be on the rise as well.  It is believed that this rise in greenhouse gases like carbon-dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and water vapor (H2O) may be caused by the burning of fossil fuels and other human activities.  Policy makers have been greatly urged to develop laws in regards to climate change and sustainable energy, but unfortunately we have seen little action in recent years in regard to these events (EPA, 2013).  President Obama recently stated in his State of the Union address that he was going to be taking serious measures against climate change in his second term as the time to make changes is dwindling. 

As we search for ways to decrease the effects for future generations, it has led to debates on sources of clean energy, and one of these highly debated sources is hydraulic fracturing, or ‘fracking’.  Fracking is “the use of fluid and material to create or restore small fractures in a formation (i.e. shale or other rock) in order to stimulate production from new and existing oil and gas wells” (Frac Focus, 2013).  This source of cheap natural gas emits less carbon-dioxide, but it is believed to still heat the planet as well as having other affects on the environment.  The key idea is that natural gas produced by processes like fracking can curtail the burning of fossil fuels like coal so that we may eventually turn to all sustainable energy (i.e. wind and solar) by the years 2-2020-2060,  in hopes of keeping the warming of the earth’s atmosphere below the predicted 2ᵒC rise.  Hydraulic fracturing only began in the late 1940s and has only recently begun to become more popular as inexpensive procedures have been discovered (Plumer, 2013).  Therefore, there is still much unknown about the process and its effects.  More importantly, fracking is not yet highly regulated and has led to policy debates by many. 

            In Upstate New York and Pennsylvania, Marcellus wells (Figure 1) are the most common fracturing wells (Frac Focus, 2013).  Due to the recent boom in hydraulic fracturing in Upstate New York, the state has been pushed to pass regulations on the oil and natural gas process.  The New York Department of Environmental Conservation has recently revised its draft regulations for high-volume fracking.  According to the Environmental Working Group (EWG) these regulations are flawed and do not make the fracking process much safer.  The EWG lists five key reasons why the regulations should not be passed yet. The first being that the health assessment is incomplete, meaning these regulations cannot possibly guarantee the safety of New York residents.  The second is that the water supply is not properly safeguarded.  The new regulations allow fracking as close as 500 feet from private wells and some aquifers even though there is proof in other states that this distance doesn’t properly protect the water supply.  Thirdly, the volume threshold of 300,000 gallons of water per well is defined as high-volume, therefore wells just under that threshold follow only the two-decade old environmental protection measures, which are not highly regarded.  The fourth issue stated by EWG is that the drilling agencies are given too much leeway to hide important information about the likely dangerous chemicals used to advance fracking.  Lastly, the plan for disposal of the toxic waste water left behind from the fracturing process has too many holes and is too weak so it cannot be done safely enough.  The EWG concludes their analysis by recommending a stronger, more extensive review of hydraulic-fracturing before the regulations are passed and that in the mean-time the New York DEC does not authorize fracking until it can guarantee regulation, safety, clean air and water, and economic security (EWG, 2013). 

Figure 1: Marcellus hydraulic-fracturing wells. Source: Frac Focus, 2013.

            However, New York is not the only state dealing with policy issues regarding fracking.  As in Upstate New York, the fracking industry has primarily targeted rural areas.  Therefore a seemingly perfect place for fracking would be North Dakota.  According to a recent article by NPR, the fracking boom has rapidly spread in this state.  One hundred fifty oil companies have moved to the region and are now producing 660,000 barrels a day which is double the amount produced just two years ago, making North Dakota the second-largest oil producing state, with Texas, of course taking the number one spot (Krulwich, 2013).  The fracking has become so large that it can now be seen from space at night making this once rural ranching region now nearly as bright as some of the major US cities (Figure 2).  The biggest problem in North Dakota right now is the fact that after this oil is brought to the surface it brings natural gas with it, and according to the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources about 29% of this natural gas is flared (burned off) into the atmosphere since the oil companies do not see much value in it and it is being done with barely any regulations.  This flaring is what can be seen from space at nighttime.  The Natural Resource Defense Council states that these North Dakota drillers burn off enough gas to heat 500,000 homes every day (Krulwich, 2013).  To put it into perspective, that is enough gas to heat a home for every person in New Haven, CT.  Unfortunately these flares are only subject to tax or royalties after 1 year, that being if the state doesn’t already grant the company(s) extensions.  The burning of this natural gas has brought great concern by the farming industry in how it is affecting the air and the water.  There have been many complaints by farmers about poisons in the air and water that harm their crops, this being in a region that is still suffering from a drought.  In North Dakota the rights to the minerals below the farms were separated from rights to farm land itself years ago, meaning that much of the fracking is going on without the consent of farmers and possibly hurting their industry.  There is not much being done by North Dakota policy makers to ensure the safety and security of the farmers, their land, and their products (Krulwich, 2013). 

Figure 2: Fracking field in the North Dakota Bakken formation as seen from space at night.  Image via NASA. Source: Krulwich, 2013.

            There is simply too much that is not yet known about fracking and its environmental effects.  For this reason alone I feel that it should be highly regulated at least until we do know more about the process, specifically its emissions and chemicals.  Even though the gas and oil may be cleaner than other sources for fuel like coal there is still too much of a risk that its pollution threats could completely negate these benefits.  These regulations and policies need to be made quickly, and by the right people (not just congress, but including scientific input) as fracking is expanding rapidly at unprecedented levels.  In the mean-time there needs to be continuous research into other oil and natural gas solutions that may be safer and can be easily regulated.  With the science and technology of today this is certainly possible.  These regulations and practices should be done on a state and/or regional level, but if fracking continues to expand at the level it has been it may be quickly made into a national issue.  Fracking has been linked to methane gas by the Environmental Protection Agency as it produces carcinogens like benzene and other volatile organic compounds.  If these byproducts can be mitigated or greatly reduced or captured, then it is possible that fracking could be a decent source of cheap oil and natural gas, at least until we can find cheaper ways in more sustainable energy like solar and wind power.  President Obama has taken positive steps in developing an Advisory Board Shale Gas Production Subcommittee which will hopefully soon bring steps that the oil producers can immediately begin to reduce air and water pollution threats (Hart and Weiss, 2011).  Being from Upstate New York and having seen and heard the stories of fracking pollution, I have signed declarations for policies to be developed properly and passed quickly by the policy makers in Albany.  As we look for new oil and gas sources we must continuously weigh the expected benefits with predicted outcomes and find the value in a cost benefit analysis of not just the economic cost, but the cost on our environment as well as other industries, like farming.

Sources: 

"Causes of Climate Change." EPA. United States Environmental Protection Agency, 8 Jan. 2013. Web. 10 Mar. 2013. <http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/causes.html>.

"EWG Says Proposed NY State Fracking Rules Won't Assure Safety." Environmental Working Group. EWG Public Afffairs, 11 Jan. 2013. Web. 12 Mar. 2013. <http://www.ewg.org/release/ewg-says-proposed-ny-state-fracking-rules-wont-assure-safety>.

Hart, Melanie, and Daniel J. Weiss. "Making Fracking Safe in the East and West."Center for American Progress. N.p., 21 Oct. 2011. Web. 11 Mar. 2013. <http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2011/10/21/10407/making-fracking-safe-in-the-east-and-west/>.

"Hydraulic Fracturing: The Process." Frac Focus: Chemical Disclosure Registry. N.p., 2013. Web. 12 Mar. 2013. <http://fracfocus.org/hydraulic-fracturing-how-it-works/hydraulic-fracturing-process>.

Krulwich, Robert. "A Mysterious Patch Of Light Shows Up In The North Dakota Dark."NPR. NPR, 16 Jan. 2013. Web. 10 Mar. 2013. <http://www.npr.org/blogs/krulwich/2013/01/16/169511949/a-mysterious-patch-of-light-shows-up-in-the-north-dakota-dark>.

Plumer, Brad. "Is Fracking a 'bridge' to a Clean-energy Future? Earnest Moriz Thinks So." The Washington Post. N.p., 4 Mar. 2013. Web. 12 Mar. 2013. <http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/03/04/is-fracking-a-bridge-to-a-clean-energy-future-ernest-moniz-thinks-so/>. 

The Perfect Storm Part 2??

         Now, I was alive for the the Perfect Storm  back in October of 1991, but I was only 1 year old so my recollection of the event is not very good.  As many of you may have heard, there is a possible storm that might be just like this that may impact much of the East Coast and New England in the next week.  This storm would be the what is now Tropical Storm Sandy.  This tropical storm could rapidly intensify as it moves up the East Coast.  A few of the computer models we Meteorologists use to forecast have conjured up quite the storm.  The ECMWF and Canadian models keep the storm close to shore which, if it verifies, could mean a lot of damage for the East Coast.  Another model, the GFS keep the storm a little off shore which could bring a little more damage to New England.  Either way, there are still a lot of variables which must come together for this next 'Perfect Storm'.  Everyone has their own opinion on which model does the best with forecasting these types of tropical events, but there are a lot of players in this game to get the storm to be a home run like the Perfect Storm from 21 years ago.  For instance there is a stalled cold front which will be a big player in this turn of events, there also needs to be enough energy and moisture distributed properly for this storm to happen. Depending upon where the cold air sets up there could even be snow, most likely wet snow in higher elevations and further inland in New England and the Mid-Atlantic, but again, we are still days out to know all of this for certain as it will all come down to the exact track of which the storm takes. 
          With that being said, what should people in the Mid-Atlantic and New England be doing right now?  Well, not much since this 'storm' is still days out, if it even happens.  If you live in any of the aforementioned regions I would be sure to continue to pay attention to the news and your local Meteorologist, if the storm does come to be it will bring a large amount of precipitation which could lead to flooding inland as well as coastal flooding, there will also be high winds, and if snow comes into play there could also be tree damage.  It will be exciting to see how strong this storm will be and which track it will take as it moves northward up the East Coast.  There will be much more known about this storm by the end of the week and this weekend, so keep an eye on the tropics this week and an eye to the sky this coming Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday!

Below is an Image of the ECMWF current model for Halloween on the left and the Canadian model for Monday on the right with GFS for Monday as well on the bottom:

 

An interesting article found in the Washington Post also futher explains the possibilities: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/monster-east-coast-storm-next-week-or-big-miss/2012/10/22/94bc2152-1c72-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html

...I Don't Think We're in Kansas Anymore...

          When we hear the word tornado we typically think of states in the Midwestern United States and not the islands of Hawaii, but on March 9th a tornadic waterspout touched down on the island of Oahu.  This tornado, which began as a waterspout, was rated an EF0 on the Enhanced Fujita scale (0 is the lowest, 5 highest) bringing winds of 60-70mph.  This is the first tornado to strike the islands since 2009.  Most tornadoes which affect the islands of Hawaii are rated EF0's although, there have been a few EF2's and some unrated ones (one's that may have been higher than EF2 strength).  For a complete list of the tornadoes that have struck Hawaii visit http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Hawaii_tornadoes .
          Friday's tornado developed from a disorganized group of showers and thunderstorms (convection) which developed around the Hawaiian islands.  As stated before, this tornado was a waterspout (tornado that develops over water rather than land) which then moved over the island of Oahu traveling for a little more than a mile.  Waterspouts form through similar mechanisms as tornadoes, but when a waterspout forms you can first see a dark spot over the water where it begins its formation.  Then you will see the water begin to swirl around a vortex before you see the entire tube shape of the waterspout develop.  Another characteristic that made this storm particularly interesting was the large hail it brought with it, golf ball sized hail, and there were even some reports of larger hail.  All in all this was a very interesting event which has caught the eye of many meteorologists.

Radar image of the cell which dropped the tornado:

http://theweatherguru.com/

Image of some of the damage form the tornado:

http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/03/09/10628559-a-rare-tornado-touches-down-on-oahu

Sources:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/apx/science/waterspouts/waterspouts.php
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/national-weather-service-stormy-weather-brings-unprecedented-hail-storms-over-hawaii/2012/03/09/gIQAtxC01R_story.html

America's snowiest cities...

          If you feel like you have that one story about a crazy snowfall that will trump everyone else's story than you are probably right....if you live in the Northeast.  The Northeastern United States has 4 of the top 7 snowiest major cities.  From Nor'easters, to arctic clippers, to lake effect snow, the Northeast gets it all (in terms of major cities)!  So if you're a snow lover you will have to plan a trip up this way.  

          Of all the cities and towns in the United States the regions that tend to have the most snowfall every year are areas along the heaviest lake effect snow belts (Michigan's upper peninsula and the Tug Hill Plateau region of New York), areas in the foothills of the Rockies and Sierra Nevada's, and lastly area in the valleys and mountains of Alaska.  It seems obvious these are the places that would be getting the most snow as they have a continues moisture source (Great Lakes) and they are in the perfect locations for providing the lift for snowfall to occur (foothills). The snowiest town in all of the U.S. is believed to be Valdez, Alaska with an average of 326.3" of snow EVERY YEAR!  That is about 27 feet of snow!!! If you are not a fan of snow you will certainly need to stay away from there and I'm sure their only mode for transportation is sled or snowmobile.  So as someone who is used to getting up to 3 feet of snow in a day in Upstate NY where I'm from, I can't even imagine this much snow! For all you weather weenies who ask why Valdez gets so much snow when it's in a valley and on the Pacific Coast, 2 words.....Aleutian Low.  So when any of you New Englanders decide you want to complain about your little baby Nor'easters, think twice, you could be living in Valdez, AK.  

For more on the snowiest cities visit: http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/snowiest-six-cities_2011-11-29?page=1

                                                 

Freezing rain in the forecast??

Right now we are forecasted to get some mixed frozen precipitation, including some freezing rain.  The reason why this could be a concern is that freezing rain can cause a lot of damage depending on how much we get.  The pattern has been that we have been getting a lot more warm air advection and therefore much more rain still reaching up to New England, with the exception of the October/Halloween and November/Thanksgiving snowstorms.  Will this be the case again?  Well, typically in a freezing rain setting for areas in the Northeast we will see a low pressure system over the Great Lakes with a warm front or quasi-stationary front set up across upstate New York (with the freezing rain falling to the north of the surface front) and high pressure centered over Nova Scotia/the Canadian Maritimes.  Currently this is just about the exact setting we will be seeing Wednesday night into Thursday.  But something important to note when forecasting freezing precipitation is that most times it is the local features that have the biggest influence on freezing rain.  It is extremely important to have a well established cold pool at the surface where the falling rain drops can refreeze when they hit the ground.  This is what we will be watching at Wednesday night approaches. Stay tuned for an updated forecast...

The Soaker that was 2011

From severe thunderstorms, to frontal boundaries, to hurricanes, to snow storms, this year has proven to be one of the wettest on record for many, especially those of us here in the Northeast.  New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Vermont have all set a new record with 2011, from records dating back from 1895.  Several places stretching from the Ohio River Valley to northern New England have had precipitation amounts 20 inches more than the normal!!  This is quite the figure and it will be interesting to see how the year will finish off.  It hasn't been much of a Winter so far with many places seeing much milder temperatures and there is no major storm in the forecast yet.  But that's the best thing about weather, it's always changing!

For more information on the record setting year for precipitation go to: http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/record-wet-year-east_2011-12-10