Fall Foliage 101

We all enjoy the beautiful colors of the Fall season, especially up here in New Hampshire, but what is the science behind it? Well, in order for leaves to be bright green they need lots of sunshine and typically milder temperatures.  Chlorophyll is the main chemical in the leaves which gives them their green color.  In the fall the days become shorter so there is less daylight and therefore less sunshine for the chemical process to occur.  It has also been proven that the weather can affect the leaves changing color as climatologically, the fall and winter months are cloudier than the summer months.  Cooler weather affects the leaves in that the cold air closes up the veins in the leaves where the chemical reactions occur, without those reactions the green color fades.  Without the sunshine and long hours of daylight other chemicals take over giving the leaves their yellow, orange, red, and brown colors.  This year's fall foliage should be pretty nice as we have had a favorable summer and a few warm fall days so far (weather like this makes the colors more vibrant).  Of course each type of tree is different, but here in New England where the mountians are covered with many different types of trees the colors appear to be more colorful.  The peak fall foliage viewing times for New Hampshire are early to mid Ocotober.

For more information of how leaves change:
http://na.fs.fed.us/fhp/pubs/leaves/leaves.shtm

To track fall foliage visit:
http://www.wmur.com/ne-fall-colors/index.html

Is that snow!???... In September!????

Yes! There is snow being forecasted only a mere couple hundred of miles from the U.S. - Canadian border!  That is proof of how cold this air is that is diving down from Canada.   But don't worry! We won't be seeing any snow here in NH! As this front moves through overnight we will only get some brief showers, some heavy in some areas, and possibly a few thunderstorms. But it will be chilly at night by the end of the week so have that extra blanket handy!

Brrrrrr! I thought Fall began next week!?

      As you all know Autumnal equinox is Friday September 23 this year at 5:05am but in the world of weather weenies the Meteorological Fall began on September 1st.  By the end of this week and into the weekend you will definitely be thinking it is Fall already.   Over the weekend a broad region of high pressure matched with a cold front,  was sitting up in Northwestern Canada.  This cold front will dive down across much of the United States mid-week.  Here in the Northeast the cold front will cross our region sometime Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.  As the front moves through there will be a chance of some rain showers Wednesday afternoon and into Thursday.  There may even be a rumble of thunder or two.  After this front passes through we will find that some areas will be struggling to get out of the 50s on Friday! Even more surprising will be the overnight lows.  Many areas won't even reach 40 at night at the end of the week and some places up North ( i.e. Northern NH, VT, NY, and ME, and North Dakota, Montana, and Northern Minnesota) have a possibility of seeing thier first frost of the year.  I guess this is Mother Nature's way of saying 'get ready!', because Fall is quickly approaching.  Luckily behind the cold front there is a broad region of high pressure which will encompass much of the Eastern United States make for a spectacular weekend!

When Bad Weather Strikes it is a Call for Us to Unite and Help

    Over the summer as I sat by a bonfire with my family in my backyard watching the thunderstorm that formed off of a lake breeze off of Lake Erie I remembered both why I love the weather and why I sometimes hate it.  The lightning filling up the sky in the distance with luminous purples and oranges was spectacular and beautiful but it also reminded me of the dangers of weather.  A few weeks ago it was posted all over the web that the country music band Sugarland's stage collapsed at the Indiana State Fair killing 4 and injuring dozens more.  The collapse was likely due to a wind gust upwards of 60mph that came from a strong line of thunderstorms that passed over the area as a cold front moved through.  I can only stress the importance of staying in a safe location when bad weather comes by, and please listen to local meteorologists or other officials and keep your eye to the sky. 
    
     Thunderstorms can develop very quickly and intensify just as fast. One that formed around the same time over Monroe County popped up and only left a few rain drops on the westside, but by the time it reached the city the rain was reportedly coming straight down, or sideways at times with plenty of lightning and even hail.  Many were left without power for several hours and as the storm continued to head out of Monroe County into Wayne County there were reports of hail, fast winds, the sky appeared to be rotating, and many trees and powerlines were down.  Luckily everyone stayed safe here in the Rochester area. 
     While Thunderstorms are the most recognized form of severe weather in the summertime, severe drought is also one of the most frequent this time of year.  The people in the Horn of Africa and its surrounding countries are suffering from one of the worst droughts and famines seen yet.  Typically this region of Africa experiences a wet and dry season.  For this year and most of last year the region has received barely any rain at all and if they have received some it has not been enough to establish crops.  For the rainy season the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will move north into the region bringing abundant rain in the months of March to May.  Typically this time of year is when most of the crops are harvested, but this year there are no crops to harvest.  Another cause for why this shift of the ITCZ did not occur was because there is a stong La Nina leaving relatively drier conditions across much of the Horn of Africa. There are many people still without food and donated food supplies are running out. In the end this could prove to show an entire generation may be nearly wiped out.  In a recently published article (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AF_EAST_AFRICA_FAMINE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-09-05-05-03-40) the U.N. states that nearly 13 million people are still in need of aid.  This is an urgent issue and it will not be going away anytime soon.  Forecasts are showing that the region will not be getting the rain it needs for the harvest it needs. 

         There are many ways to help but first educate yourself and your friends about the issue (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44399980).  Here is a  list of some organizations that are helping:
-UNICEF (Text FOOD to UNICEF (864233) to donate $10)
-International Committee of the Red Cross (http://www.icrc.org/)
-Edesia Global Nutrition Solutions (http://www.edesiaglobal.org/) <-- provides nutritional bars that contain much of the nutrients people are not getting. 
-The World Food Programme (Text the word AID to 27722 to donate $10)
-Doctors Without Borders (http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/news/allcontent.cfm?id=68)
-Water for Sudan (www.waterforsudan.org) <-building wells in Southern Sudan, changing lives.

Spring makes a return?

     Temperatures for the next few days, with the exception of Saturday, will hang around 70 in Rochester, NY.  This will feel like a fresh breath of air after the past few days hanging near 90 and even surpassing 90 on Wednesday.  With the passage of a cold front Thursday afternoon cooler, more stable air has moved into the area.  The sky will begin to clear overnight and dew points will drop throughout the region allowing for a more comfortable day than what we've seen the past few days.  Also following the passage of the cold front the winds will shift out of the north sending a cool breeze off Lake Ontario which will be one of the additional factors keeping the region's temperatures relatively low.
     Saturday a warm front will move through bringing the region briefly into the 80's and also bringing some scattered showers and thunderstorms through the area.  Some of these storms may have the potential of becoming severe.  If you're planning some activities outdoors this weekend be prepared for a scattered shower or two Saturday and early Sunday.  Keep an eye to the sky! After the warm front moves through temperatures will drop again keeping highs around and below 70 degrees for Sunday and Monday.
     For those of you who enjoy the heat and humidity of the summer you won't have to wait too long until it comes back mid-week next week.  For now enjoy the subtle warmth of Friday and get outside with the family! For those of you weather weenies keep and eye to the sky and to local radar maps for a glimpse of a possible nighttime storm one of the next few nights!

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Rochester&state=NY&site=BUF&textField1=43.1687&textField2=-77.6158&e=1

Spring in the Northeast...get out your shovel!

   It is definitely debatable for whether or not Spring exists in the Northeast, especially after this forecast.  That's right, snow and temperatures in the 30s!! Not very spring-like.
   Wednesday a low pressure system will be moving over the Northeast region.  Currently some snow and mixed precip is moving into southern New York, but it won't be reaching the Rochester area until around 2am.  Current IR satellite images show this system stretching from Montana to Connecticut.  Its currently bringing heavy snow to the Northern Plains region and some severe t-storms and rain to the Midwest.  As this system in the Midwest meets up with another, weaker low pressure system currently in the Virginia/North Carolina region, it will strengthen.  This will occur as the system nears our are and the Great Lakes.
   So what exactly will this mid latitude cyclone be bringing our way? Snow!!! Although majority of the more intense precip will take place south of New York, we will still see a decent amount of snowfall here in Upstate New York.  Both the NAM and the GFS appear to be in pretty good agreement that the Rochester are will see 3-5" of snow with localized areas receiving around 6-8" (i.e. areas closer to the lake).  Areas south of the city could receive some sleet.  This snow will not be the fun fluffy stuff, but rather the ugly, heavy, wet snow.  After this system temperatures will remain in the mid 30s for the res of the week.  Things should hopefully warm up again later next week.
     I will attempt to update this forecast tomorrow! In the mean time get that shovel out again! This is Rochester!

some websites used to make forecast:
http://www.txtornado.net/Compare/_p06_comp_06z.htm
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namussfcwbg.gif
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=ir&size=large&endDate=20110323&endTime=-1&duration=3
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Just when you thought it was over...

     To all of you who thought that maybe the groundhog got it right and this winter was over....sorry! Mother nature clearly has other ideas.  That quick spring preview last week was nice but unfortunately it was just a cruel joke.  Although for those of you who want to continue skiing or boarding, this is just what the snow doctor prescribed.
     As this system moves its way through New England it will be bring snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, and high winds.  Here in northern New Hampshire it should stay all snow.  Already we have about 6 inches here in Plymouth and the snow will be intensifying later this afternoon, coming down at more than one inch an hour!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0142.html <--current mesoscale discussion in regards to heavy precip moving into the Eastern VT to the coast of Maine later this afternoon.  Total snowfall amounts for Plymouth should be around 8-10".
     Back in my hometown of Rochester, NY the system is beginning to move out of the region  leaving behind 7" (10" along Lake Ontario) of fresh heavy, wet snow.  Unfortunately for them, this system moving out will initiate a strong westerly flow as the system moves out over the Atlantic, which will in turn initiate the Lake Effect snow.  Rochester, which already has around 102" on the year should expect another 10"-12" (and possible more along the shore of Lake Ontario) from this storm.  But many in Rochester I'm sure will just say '110"?...that's nothing!'
     Here's a great image I found posted on NOAA's website http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/imageoftheday.php.  You can see the swath of snow reaching from New York to Maine and the rain and clouds stretching all along the eastern seaboard.  You can also depict the dry slot trying to work its way into Pennsylvania and the Southern Tier in NY.
     Fueling this storm is some intensely warm, moist air coming right off the Gulf of Mexico and some very cold and dry arctic air moving down from central Canada.  As the system moves across the Appalachians it should re-intensify a little while it moves up the coastline from NJ to Maine.  (Surface analysis as of approx. 1pm-http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namussfcwbg.gif).  Tonight will be quite cold after this system moves out of the Northeast around 7-8pm.  Lows across the region will be around 10 above, putting wind chills below zero with winds around 20mph and gusts as high as 40mph.
     Overall this will be a pretty decent storm all around.  A winter storm warning remains in effect until about 5-7pm this evening across the Northeast so if you must drive give yourself plenty of time and be safe!